applied probability

Probability analysis can take risk evaluation of project all-sidedly in the common methods of uncertainty analysis, but it is difficulty to conclude the probability distribution of uncertainty factors' variety which affect project. So it is not applied widely in real operation.

在不确定性分析常用的方法中概率分析能够全面地对项目风险进行评价，但是因影响项目的不确定性因素变化的概率分布较难确定，所以在实际操作中没能得到广泛的应用。

By means of touching the ball model, this paper gives the applied method of the three important formulas: multiplication, formula of holohedral probability and Bayes formula for having something to do with conditional probability in classical probability calculation, and enumerate the examples.

借助摸球模型，给出了在古典概率计算中与条件概率有关的三个重要公式：乘法公式、全概率公式和贝叶斯公式的应用方法，并且列举了具体的实例。

The autoregressive model is applied to the monthly runoff probability forecast.

把自回归模型用于月径流过程概率预报中.

Monte Carlo weight-varing rejection sampling method for non-normalized probability density function is discussed, and applied to the simulation study of orthopositronium's 3 γ annihilation, correct results are obtained, and a suggestion for experiment is made.

此文讨论了非归一几率密度函数的蒙特卡罗变权重舍选抽样方法，并将其应用于低能电子偶素三光子湮灭的模拟研究，得到了正确可靠的结果，且对实验方案提出了建议。

Research and teaching: queuing networks, discrete event stochastic systems, applied probability, operations management, etc.

主要研究和教学领域: 排队网络理论 、 离散事件随机系统 、 应用概率论 、 运作管理等.